Braves hold on to beat Nationals, extend win streak to five

Baseball Betting Lines

07/03/2009 - Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brooks Conrad's first home run of his career was a pinch-hit, three-run shot to help the Atlanta Braves take a 9-8 win over the Washington Nationals in the opener of a three-game set.

Chipper Jones, Yunel Escobar and Matt Diaz each had two RBI while Martin Prado crossed the plate three times for the Braves, who are on a season-high five- game winning streak.

Kenshin Kawakami started on the mound, but lasted just 4 1/3 innings as he was charged with five runs -- four earned -- on six hits with three walks and six strikeouts. Boone Logan (1-0) got the win for throwing 1 2/3 perfect innings.

Adam Dunn hit the 299th home run of his career while Nyjer Morgan went 0-for-4 with a walk, one stolen base and a run scored in his debut with the Nationals, who have dropped four straight and six of seven.

Ross Detwiler was tagged for five runs on 10 hits with two walks and a strikeout in just 3 1/3 innings. Jesus Colome (1-1) was saddled with the loss.

The game had gone back and forth through the first several innings, but the Braves took the lead back in the seventh. With Colome on to start the inning, Escobar led off with a walk. The next two batters recorded outs, but Casey Kotchman kept the inning alive with a walk and Conrad launched a pitch into the right field bullpen for an 8-5 lead.

Washington got a run back in the bottom of the frame with a sacrifice fly from Cristian Guzman, but Atlanta got it back in the eighth when Diaz worked a bases loaded walk to force home Prado.

Rafael Soriano came on in the ninth to close the game and issued walks to the first two batters. He retired the next two, but Guzman ripped a double down the right field line to make it a one-run game. However, Josh Bard grounded out to first to end the game and give Soriano his eighth save of the season.

After making a nice catch to end the top of the first, Morgan led off the home half of the frame with a walk and then stole second. The next two batters recorded outs, but Dunn kept the inning alive with a walk and Josh Willingham followed with a single to score Morgan for a 1-0 lead.

Atlanta, though, got the run back in the second as Brian McCann led off with a double and later scored on a single from Diaz.

Washington grabbed the lead back in the second on RBI singles from Ross Detwiler and Nick Johnson, but in the top of the third, Atlanta again tied the game thanks to an RBI double from Jones and a run-scoring single off the bat of Escobar.

Dunn led off the bottom of the third by drilling a 1-0 pitch into the upper deck of right field for a 4-3 lead.

However, the Braves again answered in the fourth to take the lead back. With Prado on second, Jones chipped a single to left bring him in. McCann then singled and, after Tyler Clippard took over duties on the mound, Escobar doubled to left to score Jones for a 5-4 lead.

The Nationals knotted the game again in the fifth. With one out, Willingham was hit by a pitch. Guzman then hit a grounder that Kawakami fielded, but he threw the ball away and the Nationals had runners at second and third. Josh Bard then grounded out to bring home Willingham to tie the game.

Game Notes

Atlanta has won five of seven against the Nationals this season...Morgan was acquired from the Pirates on Tuesday along with pitcher Sean Burnett for outfielder Lastings Milledge and pitcher Joel Hanrahan...Atlanta stranded 13 men on base while the Nationals left eight on base...Morgan now has 19 stolen bases on the season.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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