Powerful Penguins put streak on the line against Isles

Hockey Betting Lines

02/19/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Pittsburgh Penguins look to continue their best run since the franchise's glory days when the NHL's hottest team visits the New York Islanders this afternoon in a President's Day matinee from Nassau Coliseum.

Pittsburgh has ripped off six consecutive victories and recorded a point in 16 straight games, having gone 14-0-2 over that blazing stretch. The point streak is the club's longest since it posted 17 wins and a tie over an 18-game span during the 1992-93 campaign. The Penguins ended that season with a franchise- best 119 points.

The Penguins, who haven't lost in regulation since a 5-2 setback at Florida on January 10, maintained their winning ways with a 3-2 decision Sunday against Washington.

Evgeni Malkin snapped a 1-1 tie late in the second period with his 29th goal of the season and Maxime Talbot netted the eventual game-winner 1:10 into the third. Mark Recchi added a power-play tally and Sergei Gonchar finished with two assists to aid in the triumph.

Jocelyn Thibault stopped 29-of-31 shots for Pittsburgh, which will start up a three-game road trip this afternoon. The Penguins have won five of their last six away from home and are 14-9-5 as the visitor for the season.

The Islanders enter this key matchup in 10th place in the Eastern Conference and two points behind Montreal and Toronto, who are currently tied for the East's eighth and final playoff spot.

New York made a trade on Sunday in hopes of bettering its postseason chances, acquiring offensive-minded defenseman Marc-Andre Bergeron from Edmonton in exchange for blueliner Denis Grebeshkov.

Bergeron, a four-year NHL veteran, had career-highs of 15 goals and 20 assists for the Oilers in 2005-06 and has compiled eight goals and 17 helpers in 55 games this season.

The Isles had a two-game win streak halted by New Jersey, which leads Pittsburgh by five points atop the Atlantic Division, on Saturday. Martin Brodeur made 26 saves to earn his league-leading 11th shutout of the season as the Devils came away with a 2-0 win.

The loss spoiled another strong effort in goal from Rick DiPietro, who turned aside 28-of-30 shots. The former No. 1 overall draft choice has posted a 1.59 goals against average in eight February starts.

Pittsburgh has won four of the six meetings between the divisional rivals in 2006-07 and is 7-2-1 in its last 10 encounters with New York. The Islanders have claimed two of the last three games played between the teams at Nassau Coliseum, however.

Wwwipodlounge Hockey Betting News

<< Mets ink Sandy Alomar Jr. to minor league deal
Port St. Lucie, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Mets have signed catcher Sandy Alomar Jr. to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training. The 40-year-old Alomar played in 27 games last season with the Los An

<< Morrison stars as Canucks edge Avs
Vancouver, BC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brendan Morrison scored two goals and picked up an assist to lead the Vancouver Canucks to a 5-4 victory over the Colorado Avalanche at General Motors Place. Matt Cooke added a goal and two assists for

<< Bryant leads West to easy All-Star game win
Las Vegas, NV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kobe Bryant scored 31 points, dished out six assists and had six steals to lead the West to an easy 153-132 win over the East in the 56th annual All-Star Game at the Thomas & Mack Center. Bryant was nam

<< Kings top Ducks in shootout
Anaheim, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Lubomir Visnovsky scored in the sixth round of the shootout, to lift the Los Angeles Kings to a 4-3 victory over the Anaheim Ducks at the Honda Center. Visnovsky added a goal and an assist in regulation and

<< Sun Devils stun USC
Tempe, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jeff Pendergraph scored 14 points and grabbed 15 rebounds, and the longest losing streak in Division I basketball came to an end, as Arizona State recorded its first Pac-10 win of the season, 68-58, over 22nd-ra

Predators try to end recent woes against struggling Coyotes >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Nashville Predators will try to regain possession of first place in the Central Division as they continue a homestand this evening with a matchup against the slumping Phoenix Coyotes. Nashville lost its grasp on

Flyers, Bruins look to continue good play of late >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of teams that have shown improved play in recent weeks will get together this evening at the Wachovia Center, where the Boston Bruins resume a long road trip with a showdown against the Philadelphia Flyers.

Jayhawks and Wildcats square off in pivotal Big 12 clash >>
Manhattan, KS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kansas hopes to extend its winning streak to five games as it battles long-time rival Kansas State in Big 12 Conference action from Manhattan. The fourth consecutive win for KU came on

Pitt continues to build head of steam as home stretch approaches >>
East Rutherford, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The seventh-ranked Pittsburgh Panthers continue their quest for the Big East Conference regular season title, and they will take another step in the right direction if they can knock off the Seto

Big East foes meet in Milwaukee >>
Milwaukee, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fresh off a heart-breaking loss, the Villanova Wildcats will try to help their NCAA Tournament chances with a victory over the 12th-ranked Marquette Golden Eagles in Big East Conference action. O

Huskers' Lucky hospitalized for undisclosed reason

LINCOLN, Neb. -- Nebraska running back Marlon Lucky was hospitalized Monday for undisclosed reasons after Lincoln police responded to a call at his residence.

The Nebraska athletic department said in a release Monday that Lucky was admitted Sunday night.

MySportsbook.com has the Cornhuskers listed at +2500 to win the BCS National Championship odds.

A nursing supervisor at the hospital said all questions about Lucky were being referred to the athletic department. The athletic department said there would be no further comment from the department or Lucky's family.

A Lincoln Police spokesman said officers responded to a call at Lucky's residence 11:30 p.m. Sunday. The spokesman said he didn't know Lucky's condition at the time he was taken to the hospital.

Lucky, from North Hollywood, Calif., started six games last season as a sophomore and was the team's second-leading rusher, with 728 yards and six touchdowns. He also caught 32 passes for 383 yards. He averaged 19.1 yards on eight kickoff returns.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com - this sportsbook accepts credit cards.

How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.